Commander Market Movers: Week of October 26

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Prices checked October 25. All prices are approximate US market prices for the cheapest regular (non-foil) printing unless noted. Prices change fast, and this article is information for players, not investment advice.

Three weeks into Reality Fracture, the buying has shifted. The planeswalker rush has cooled, and players building the new precons are now hunting the second tier of support cards: polymorph spells for Jace, flicker pieces for Dack Fayden, and one old combo piece that suddenly matters in competitive play. Here is what moved and what it means for your deck.

Biggest risers

Divergent Transformations

This is the cleanest example of a precon spike this month. Divergent Transformations exiles two creatures and replaces each with the next creature from the top of its owner’s library, which is exactly what Jace, Multiverse Architect wants to do with cheap tokens. It sat around 35 cents for years. Since the Multiverse Reforged decklist was revealed, hundreds of copies have sold and only a few dozen listings remain. The Commander 2016 copy is the cheapest at about $3, the Commander Masters copy is closer to $6, and the foil-etched version jumped into the $50 range. If you only want to play it, the 2016 printing does the same job.

Knacksaw Clique and Preston, the Vanisher

Knacksaw Clique is an old Shadowmoor faerie that untaps for value. In competitive Commander, Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy decks pair it with Cryptolith Rite for a loop that pays for itself, and after that list won several large events, the Clique went from under $4 to the mid-teens with some listings near $19. It has only one printing, so supply is thin.

Preston, the Vanisher was already pricey because it only ever appeared in two Jumpstart packs. Now Dack Fayden, Helping Hand players run it to copy their flicker triggers, and the price climbed from about $35 to the mid-$50s. That is a lot for a casual deck: a cheaper flicker engine like Ephemerate or Conjurer’s Closet does a similar job.

Still climbing, more slowly

Agatha of the Vile Cauldron keeps rising because of her infinite combo with Aerid Konstrari, now around $9-11 for the regular copy. In the sphinx camp, Tivit, Seller of Secrets and Azor, the Lawbringer each added a few dollars. These are still moving, but the steep part of the climb looks to be over.

Biggest drops

New cards keep getting cheaper. Darklight Phoenix and Emrakul, the Exigent Doom lost another quarter or more of their price as more Reality Fracture product gets opened. If you are waiting on a new card, this is usually how it goes for the first month or two.

Superfriends spikes are levelling out. Aminatou, the Fateshifter, Onakke Oathkeeper and Vronos, Masked Inquisitor all slipped a little. Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God held around $34 for a regular copy, and Oath of Teferi is still about $7.50 for the original Dominaria printing. Raffine, Scheming Seer gave back about a quarter of its sphinx gains.

Reprint watch

Two Secret Lair products put pricey Commander cards back into circulation. The Marvel’s History of Heroes Countdown Kit (November 2, $199.99) holds 30 reprints with new Marvel art, and the Corn Maze Superdrop, on sale since October 12, covers several more. Secret Lair copies come in limited numbers, so they rarely crash a price, but they often take the edge off.

So far only Molten Duplication has really moved, likely because it had never been reprinted before. The others usually react once the Secret Lair copies actually ship and reach the market, which can take months. If you need one of these for a deck and the Secret Lair art does not appeal to you, there is no rush to buy today.

Cards to watch

• The Theorist, Jace Beleren: last week stores ranged from about $40 to near $80. Prices have now narrowed to the low-to-mid $50s, a sign the card is close to finding its level.
• Polymorph: the cheapest copies still sell for a dollar or two, but near-mint listings are thinning out and some now ask around $6. Jace players looking for more polymorph effects are the reason. Mass Polymorph and Reality Scramble are cheap alternatives.
• Star Trek: the set and its four Commander precons release November 13. New commanders usually lift older support cards around release, so expect another round of surprise spikes.
• Marvel: Darkhold Destiny: Beta Ray Bill and Doctor Strange, Master of Magic from the Countdown Kit are the first cards from the next Marvel set, which reaches prereleases in April. Too early to say what it does to prices.
• Next ban update: scheduled for November 30.

Why prices move

Most Commander price swings come from a few simple causes:

• New commanders: A popular new legend creates thousands of new decks overnight, all hunting for the same support cards.
• Low supply: Cards printed once, or long ago, have few copies available, so even modest demand clears out stores fast.
• Reprints: A new printing adds supply and usually pulls prices down, especially for the new version.
• Bans and list changes: Banning a card or adding it to the Game Changers list can cut demand quickly, while unbans can do the opposite.
• The hype cycle: Spikes often overshoot. Once sellers restock, many cards fall partway back, as Onakke Oathkeeper and Sphinx Ambassador show this week.

FAQ

Should I buy a card right after it spikes?

If you need it for a deck you play this week, buying is fine, but compare several stores, because prices vary widely right after a spike. If you can wait, many spiked cards drift back down once more copies get listed, as this week’s drops show. A cheaper substitute often does most of the same job in the meantime.

Will the Countdown Kit make Fierce Guardianship cheaper?

Probably a little, but not right away. Secret Lair products are made in limited numbers and ship weeks or months after the sale, so the effect on the regular market tends to be small and slow. Cards that had never been reprinted, like Molten Duplication, usually react the most.

Why are cheap old cards like Divergent Transformations spiking?

When a precon shows thousands of players a cheap card that fits their new deck, they all buy it in the same week. A card nobody played has few copies listed, so the cheap ones sell out fast and the price jumps. Waiting a few weeks often brings it partway back down.